First and foremost, a record setting early voting and those tend to be democrats.
So early results are going to favor Biden, it's that simple, then as today's votes are counting those numbers will change dramatically.
Other uncertainties
The pandemic, used against Trump and favors Biden and the democrats (naively IMO, based on a few tweets and NOT based on policy. Plus democrats lagged Trump on this issue)
George Floyd's death, a total joke but used against Trump
BLM riots, favor Trump
Anti Oil & fracking, favors Trump
So early results are going to favor Biden, it's that simple, then as today's votes are counting those numbers will change dramatically.
Other uncertainties
The pandemic, used against Trump and favors Biden and the democrats (naively IMO, based on a few tweets and NOT based on policy. Plus democrats lagged Trump on this issue)
George Floyd's death, a total joke but used against Trump
BLM riots, favor Trump
Anti Oil & fracking, favors Trump